We’re five weeks into the 2018 NFL regular season, and there’s already a picture forming when it comes to the top of next year’s draft order.
The good folks at Football Outsiders have a formula for projecting the odds for next year’s No. 1 overall pick, and the San Francisco 49ers are firmly planted in the driver’s seat at this point. The season-ending knee injury to Jimmy Garoppolo quickly flipped the ‘Niners from potential playoff contender to a consensus top-five pick in the 2019 draft.
The Buffalo Bills and Arizona Cardinals are the current challengers to the 49ers for that top overall pick, followed by the Oakland Raiders and New York Giants.
Four teams have a 0.0 percent chance of landing that pick, per this formula: the New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals, Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints.
To check out the complete breakdown at Football Outsiders, including playoff odds and more, click here.